FNC Report: Housing Recovery Takes Hold for the Long Haul
Though home foreclosures continue to be a challenge in many hard-hit markets, a report released this week by mortgage technology company FNC indicates the ongoing housing recovery should continue for the long haul.
According to FNC’s Foreclosure Market Report, foreclosure prices have bottomed out in recent months and the foreclosure market has stabilized while underlying home values are rising. Foreclosure prices are at a 10-year low (when the sizes of foreclosed homes are factored in).
This trend of a rising underlying market accompanied by stabilizing foreclosure prices is the first encouraging development in the housing recession, according to FNC Senior Research Economist, Dr. Yanling Mayer.
“The fact that we are seeing a combination of rising home prices and a bottoming out of foreclosure prices is a very good sign the housing recovery is taking hold,” Mayer says. “This is the very first time in the long housing recession that the two are happening at the same time.”
FNC’s report shows that foreclosure price discounts, which compare a foreclosed home’s estimated market value to its final sales price, have dropped to pre-mortgage crisis levels at about 12.2 percent in Q4 2012. At the height of the mortgage crisis in 2008 and 2009, foreclosed homes were typically sold at more than 25 percent below their estimated market value. Additionally, the report indicates that the typical size of foreclosed homes is also approaching pre-crisis levels.
“If you look at the period of short-lived recovery under the first-time homebuyer tax credits, the foreclosure market was still in the midst of rapid deterioration with the influx of delinquent mortgages,” Mayer says. “This time, we are witnessing an entirely different development in the foreclosure market.”
FNC publishes the mortgage industry’s first market-valued based foreclosure price discount to gauge the degree of market distress. For more information about the foreclosure price discount, please refer to FNC’s March 2011 report located here.
More highlights from FNC’s Foreclosure Market Report:
• Single-family REO and foreclosure sales are 18.1 percent in Q4 2012, down from 26.5 percent in Q1 2012 and 24.2 percent in Q4 2011.
• The median foreclosure price is $93,000 or $65 per square foot. In comparison, the median price on non-foreclosure sales is $183,500 or $106 per square.
• Foreclosure price discounts are typically larger for low-tier properties, averaging 18.4 percent in Q4 2012. High-end properties, on the other hand, are typically sold close to their market value.
• Collateral depreciation – the difference between a property’s prior purchase price and foreclosure sale price – continues to decelerate, down to 6.4 percent in Q4 2012 from 8.4 percent a year earlier. Among the re-sales of non-distressed homes, homeowners typically broke even and many even realized a small price appreciation (+0.4 percent).
• Michigan has the nation’s highest concentration of foreclosure sales; 56 percent of homes sold in Q4 2012 are foreclosure sales. In contrast, foreclosure sales in judicial states such as New York, New Jersey, and Vermont only make up 5 percent of home sales.
• Foreclosure rates in a number of the hardest hit states are at or below the national average: Arizona (14.3 percent), California (19.8 percent), Florida (20.5 percent), and Nevada (13.0%).
• Midwest cities including Detroit, Chicago, Cleveland, and St. Louis have the largest concentration of foreclosure sales.
• Las Vegas, Phoenix, Riverside, and Sacramento show rapid declines in foreclosure sales in the last 12 months.
• Foreclosure price discounts are much smaller in markets with fast-rising prices. Many buyers in Phoenix, Las Vegas, Sacramento, San Diego, and Riverside paid a price premium on foreclosure sales, meaning foreclosure sales price exceeded estimated market value.
• Judicial foreclosures are generally associated with the largest price discount in foreclosure sales: New York (30 percent), Boston (32 percent), and Philadelphia (32.8 percent).
• Of the cities identified by the Federal Reserve Board as the largest REO inventory markets entering 2012, Phoenix, Los Angeles, and Riverside saw a significant decline in market distress during the year.
Phoenix is leading the nation in recovery with home prices up 26 percent in 2012 and foreclosure down from 29 percent to 12 percent.
For more information, visit www.fncinc.com.
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Real Estate, Market, Report, Data, and Statistics – for November 2011
While home sales in September were down slightly from a relatively strong month in August, they were up from a year ago, giving encouraging signs of a strengthening market and potential for stabilizing, if not appreciating, home prices. These signs include an increasing demand, shown by the number of people shopping for homes, and the decreasing inventory of homes for sale, in conjunction with some of the lowest levels of new housing construction since the 1960s when the Beatles first came to the United States.
Of the 3.48 million homes sold in September, 32% were first-time home buyers. With more and more people entering the market, the persisting obstacle for most is still the restrictive lending environment. In a plea to banks and policy makers, NAR President Ron Phipps said, “We need to remove the roadblocks to a housing recovery—not place more obstacles in the way of financially qualified buyers.”
With an increasing demand and shrinking inventory, it is hoped that banks will begin to see the market potential and start to lend to otherwise creditworthy home shoppers, opening the road to a more rapid recovery. While consumer confidence still remains at all-time lows, retail spending increased 1.1% last month, a positive sign of growth fueled by the approaching holiday season, which could propel the U.S. into a promising new year.
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Mortgage rates were down again, from 4.35% in September of last year to 4.11% this September. While the Federal Reserve continues to put downward pressure on interest rates to spur sales, Congress’s recent action to lower loan limits has further tightened lending among banks. This had the biggest impact in the Western states, which experienced an 8.8% drop in sales. This was mainly due to the concentration of more expensive properties in California, where buyers rushed to purchase properties in August before loans limits dropped on the October 1 deadline.
Home prices were down, with a 3.5% drop in September compared to a year ago. The national median price for homes in September was $165,400, with distressed properties, foreclosures, and short sales still accounting for 30% of sales. This is a great opportunity for those potential buyers still thinking about purchasing a home, especially as the housing industry begins to show increasing signs of stability.
With stronger sales than a year ago, the amount of homes for sale was reduced to 3.48 million units, or an 8.5-month supply at the current sales volume. With the lowest new housing construction in almost fifty years, the inventory of homes on the market is projected to continue to decline, which is a positive sign that prices could begin to climb again.
Green Your Home Did you know that the housing and building industry accounts for nearly 40% of the world’s energy and raw material consumption? Our ability to “green our homes” truly has the ability to change the world. The principles of green are really about understanding priorities for a well-lived life—living healthy, being smart with money, and acting more sustainably.
We typically spend more than 80% of our nonworking or commuting hours inside our homes. Because we spend so much of our lives inside, it only makes sense we make a healthy inside zone the first priority. Here are a few DIY tips from Green Your Home to get you started:
1. Cross-Ventilate. An average adult takes in more than 14,000 breaths—or about 3,000 gallons of air—a day! Surprisingly, you are more likely to breathe polluted air inside your home than outside—even in cities like Los Angeles, which aren’t known for air quality. Opening one window won’t cut it… you need cross-ventilation so the breeze actually blows though your home, taking the pollutions back out with it. Open a front door and a back door, or one window upstairs and one downstairs.
2. Lighten Up. Simply swapping out the five most commonly used incandescent bulbs for CFLs or LEDs in your home can save you $60 to $100 a year. Combined with well-designed artificial lighting, natural lighting is also a great way to boost efficiency.
3. Low Flow. American families use about 400 gallons of water a day, and 70% of that is used inside the home. The majority is used in the bathroom: the average person flushes the toilet 2,500 times a year. Transform your home’s toilet from water-waster to water-miser for cheap. Place a brick or 2-liter plastic bottle filled with water into your toilet’s tank. The volume of these objects means less water will be needed to fill your tank—you’ve just created your own low-flow toilet. Also, be sure and have a leaky or running toilet fixed by a plumbing professional immediately.
For more tips, buy your copy of Green Your Home now at http://www.kellerink.com/greenyourhome
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Whether you’re in the Real Estate market as a home buyer or a home seller, it is especially important, in the current real estate climate, to be educated on the local market activity.
Here are: Real Estate, Market, Reports and Statistics, for Manatee County, FL.
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