Housing Starts Pass 1 Million Starts for First Time in Nearly Five Years
Freddie Mac recently released its U.S. Economic and Housing Market Outlook for April showing that despite the ongoing housing recovery and gains on the construction jobs front, large economic headwinds persist. For example, the stubbornly high unemployment rate serves as a reminder of just how far the economy needs to go to get back to a healthy level. A short preview video and the complete April 2013 U.S. Economic and Housing Market Outlook are available here.
Housing starts were up 47 percent from March 2012 to March 2013, passing 1 million starts for the first time in nearly five years.
The pace of construction job growth has been accelerating in recent months. Over the past year, net construction job growth represented 8 percent of all job gains, while in the last six months it represented 15 percent.
Projecting an increase by $100 billion in refinances in 2014 to account for additional Home Affordable Refinance Program volumes with its extension through 2015.
Projecting residential originations, including single-family and apartments, to be nearly $2 trillion in 2013.
Supported by low mortgage rates, expect total homes built in 2013 to come in at the fastest pace since 2007.
“Until aggregate unemployment decreases substantially we will not experience robust growth. Construction employment is showing signs of life, which should help to improve the overall macroeconomic picture,” says Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac vice president and chief economist.
“Housing construction is starting to pick up, but is well below historical averages. Supported by low mortgage rates we expect more homes to be built in 2013 than in any year since 2007. This increased construction employment should continue to help bring down the overall unemployment rate.”
Freddie Mac compiles data on major economic, housing and mortgage market indicators and offers forecasts based on those indicators.
For more information, visit www.FreddieMac.com.
From Gloom to Bloom: Expecting the Healthiest Spring Season Since 2007
Freddie Mac recently released its U.S. Economic and Housing Market Outlook through March showing that as we head into the spring home buying season, continued low mortgage rates, increasing house prices, and gradually improving consumer confidence will help support increased home sales. A short preview video and the complete March 2013 U.S. Economic and Housing Market Outlook are available here.
• Compared to 2012, expect home sales to be up 8 to 10 percent for 2013.
• Expect housing starts to increase to 950,000 units for 2013, compared to 780,000 in 2012.
• In 2012, real estate added $1.5 trillion to balance sheets, and residential mortgage debt outstanding increased by 0.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2012, indicating household deleveraging might be drawing to a close.
• Because of sequestration spending reductions, expect the unemployment rate in 2013 to average about 7.8 percent, essentially flat for the year or about 0.25 percentage points higher than it otherwise would have been.
• Regardless, the housing wealth effect is taking hold in the broader market which should translate into the healthiest spring home buying season since 2007.
“History shows us not all economic recoveries are created equal and consumer confidence mirrors this fact,” says Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac vice president and chief economist.
“With the spring home buying season upon us, the recent highs in the stock market are a welcome signal of better times ahead. But it will be the gradually declining unemployment rate and steadily improving housing market that will deliver broad-based economic benefits for Americans and, in turn, support the overall recovery.”
For more information, visit www.FreddieMac.com.
FNC Report: Housing Recovery Takes Hold for the Long Haul
Though home foreclosures continue to be a challenge in many hard-hit markets, a report released this week by mortgage technology company FNC indicates the ongoing housing recovery should continue for the long haul.
According to FNC’s Foreclosure Market Report, foreclosure prices have bottomed out in recent months and the foreclosure market has stabilized while underlying home values are rising. Foreclosure prices are at a 10-year low (when the sizes of foreclosed homes are factored in).
This trend of a rising underlying market accompanied by stabilizing foreclosure prices is the first encouraging development in the housing recession, according to FNC Senior Research Economist, Dr. Yanling Mayer.
“The fact that we are seeing a combination of rising home prices and a bottoming out of foreclosure prices is a very good sign the housing recovery is taking hold,” Mayer says. “This is the very first time in the long housing recession that the two are happening at the same time.”
FNC’s report shows that foreclosure price discounts, which compare a foreclosed home’s estimated market value to its final sales price, have dropped to pre-mortgage crisis levels at about 12.2 percent in Q4 2012. At the height of the mortgage crisis in 2008 and 2009, foreclosed homes were typically sold at more than 25 percent below their estimated market value. Additionally, the report indicates that the typical size of foreclosed homes is also approaching pre-crisis levels.
“If you look at the period of short-lived recovery under the first-time homebuyer tax credits, the foreclosure market was still in the midst of rapid deterioration with the influx of delinquent mortgages,” Mayer says. “This time, we are witnessing an entirely different development in the foreclosure market.”
FNC publishes the mortgage industry’s first market-valued based foreclosure price discount to gauge the degree of market distress. For more information about the foreclosure price discount, please refer to FNC’s March 2011 report located here.
More highlights from FNC’s Foreclosure Market Report:
• Single-family REO and foreclosure sales are 18.1 percent in Q4 2012, down from 26.5 percent in Q1 2012 and 24.2 percent in Q4 2011.
• The median foreclosure price is $93,000 or $65 per square foot. In comparison, the median price on non-foreclosure sales is $183,500 or $106 per square.
• Foreclosure price discounts are typically larger for low-tier properties, averaging 18.4 percent in Q4 2012. High-end properties, on the other hand, are typically sold close to their market value.
• Collateral depreciation – the difference between a property’s prior purchase price and foreclosure sale price – continues to decelerate, down to 6.4 percent in Q4 2012 from 8.4 percent a year earlier. Among the re-sales of non-distressed homes, homeowners typically broke even and many even realized a small price appreciation (+0.4 percent).
• Michigan has the nation’s highest concentration of foreclosure sales; 56 percent of homes sold in Q4 2012 are foreclosure sales. In contrast, foreclosure sales in judicial states such as New York, New Jersey, and Vermont only make up 5 percent of home sales.
• Foreclosure rates in a number of the hardest hit states are at or below the national average: Arizona (14.3 percent), California (19.8 percent), Florida (20.5 percent), and Nevada (13.0%).
• Midwest cities including Detroit, Chicago, Cleveland, and St. Louis have the largest concentration of foreclosure sales.
• Las Vegas, Phoenix, Riverside, and Sacramento show rapid declines in foreclosure sales in the last 12 months.
• Foreclosure price discounts are much smaller in markets with fast-rising prices. Many buyers in Phoenix, Las Vegas, Sacramento, San Diego, and Riverside paid a price premium on foreclosure sales, meaning foreclosure sales price exceeded estimated market value.
• Judicial foreclosures are generally associated with the largest price discount in foreclosure sales: New York (30 percent), Boston (32 percent), and Philadelphia (32.8 percent).
• Of the cities identified by the Federal Reserve Board as the largest REO inventory markets entering 2012, Phoenix, Los Angeles, and Riverside saw a significant decline in market distress during the year.
Phoenix is leading the nation in recovery with home prices up 26 percent in 2012 and foreclosure down from 29 percent to 12 percent.
For more information, visit www.fncinc.com.
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Bradenton, Manatee County, Real Estate Report, Forecast, Stats, and Data – October 2012
In Manatee county, FL, the median sold price for CONDOMINIUM properties for October 2012 was $89,000
, showing a decrease of 16.4% compared to last month, and an increase of 12.8% from October of 2011. The average days on market for condos sold in October 2012 was 147 days. That number is 6% below the 5-year October average number of 157 days. We realized an 8.2%, month over month, increase in the number of new contracts with 172 new ‘pending’ contracts, & a 2/4% month over month increase for ‘all’ pending contracts with 296. (All pendings = new pendings + contracts carried over from September 2012)
In Manatee county, FL, the median sold price for SINGLE FAMILY HOMES AND VILLA properties for October 2012 wa $185,000, showing an increase of 5/7% compared to last month, and an 18.6% from October of 2011. The average days on market for single family homes sold in October 2012 was 96 days. That number is 20% below the 5-year October average of 119 days. We realized a 1.4% month over month decrease in the number of new contracts with 629 new ‘pending’ contracts, & a 0.2% month over month increase for ‘all’ pending contracts with 1,363 (All pendings = new pendings + contracts carried over from September 2012) and a 4% increase in supply to 1,762 active listing for single family homes and villa homes. This activity resulted in a contract ratio of 0.77 pending contracts per each active listing, . This contract ratio is 153% higher than the 5-year October average of 0.30.
For a detailed real estate market report for your Manatee or Sarasota county zip code or neighborhood, please contact our team, The Serena Group, and we would be happy to provide that report at no cost to you → 941.757.5377
or email: info@TheSerenaGroup.com or follow this link to make your request: REQUEST MARKET REPORT!
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Our own, Steve Georgie, in the Bradenton Herald news today.
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HAPPY HOLIDAYS TO ALL!
Real Estate, Market, Report, Data, and Statistics – for November 2011
While home sales in September were down slightly from a relatively strong month in August, they were up from a year ago, giving encouraging signs of a strengthening market and potential for stabilizing, if not appreciating, home prices. These signs include an increasing demand, shown by the number of people shopping for homes, and the decreasing inventory of homes for sale, in conjunction with some of the lowest levels of new housing construction since the 1960s when the Beatles first came to the United States.
Of the 3.48 million homes sold in September, 32% were first-time home buyers. With more and more people entering the market, the persisting obstacle for most is still the restrictive lending environment. In a plea to banks and policy makers, NAR President Ron Phipps said, “We need to remove the roadblocks to a housing recovery—not place more obstacles in the way of financially qualified buyers.”
With an increasing demand and shrinking inventory, it is hoped that banks will begin to see the market potential and start to lend to otherwise creditworthy home shoppers, opening the road to a more rapid recovery. While consumer confidence still remains at all-time lows, retail spending increased 1.1% last month, a positive sign of growth fueled by the approaching holiday season, which could propel the U.S. into a promising new year.
This Month’s Video
Mortgage rates were down again, from 4.35% in September of last year to 4.11% this September. While the Federal Reserve continues to put downward pressure on interest rates to spur sales, Congress’s recent action to lower loan limits has further tightened lending among banks. This had the biggest impact in the Western states, which experienced an 8.8% drop in sales. This was mainly due to the concentration of more expensive properties in California, where buyers rushed to purchase properties in August before loans limits dropped on the October 1 deadline.
Home prices were down, with a 3.5% drop in September compared to a year ago. The national median price for homes in September was $165,400, with distressed properties, foreclosures, and short sales still accounting for 30% of sales. This is a great opportunity for those potential buyers still thinking about purchasing a home, especially as the housing industry begins to show increasing signs of stability.
With stronger sales than a year ago, the amount of homes for sale was reduced to 3.48 million units, or an 8.5-month supply at the current sales volume. With the lowest new housing construction in almost fifty years, the inventory of homes on the market is projected to continue to decline, which is a positive sign that prices could begin to climb again.
Green Your Home Did you know that the housing and building industry accounts for nearly 40% of the world’s energy and raw material consumption? Our ability to “green our homes” truly has the ability to change the world. The principles of green are really about understanding priorities for a well-lived life—living healthy, being smart with money, and acting more sustainably.
We typically spend more than 80% of our nonworking or commuting hours inside our homes. Because we spend so much of our lives inside, it only makes sense we make a healthy inside zone the first priority. Here are a few DIY tips from Green Your Home to get you started:
1. Cross-Ventilate. An average adult takes in more than 14,000 breaths—or about 3,000 gallons of air—a day! Surprisingly, you are more likely to breathe polluted air inside your home than outside—even in cities like Los Angeles, which aren’t known for air quality. Opening one window won’t cut it… you need cross-ventilation so the breeze actually blows though your home, taking the pollutions back out with it. Open a front door and a back door, or one window upstairs and one downstairs.
2. Lighten Up. Simply swapping out the five most commonly used incandescent bulbs for CFLs or LEDs in your home can save you $60 to $100 a year. Combined with well-designed artificial lighting, natural lighting is also a great way to boost efficiency.
3. Low Flow. American families use about 400 gallons of water a day, and 70% of that is used inside the home. The majority is used in the bathroom: the average person flushes the toilet 2,500 times a year. Transform your home’s toilet from water-waster to water-miser for cheap. Place a brick or 2-liter plastic bottle filled with water into your toilet’s tank. The volume of these objects means less water will be needed to fill your tank—you’ve just created your own low-flow toilet. Also, be sure and have a leaky or running toilet fixed by a plumbing professional immediately.
For more tips, buy your copy of Green Your Home now at http://www.kellerink.com/greenyourhome
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