Housing Starts Pass 1 Million Starts for First Time in Nearly Five Years
Freddie Mac recently released its U.S. Economic and Housing Market Outlook for April showing that despite the ongoing housing recovery and gains on the construction jobs front, large economic headwinds persist. For example, the stubbornly high unemployment rate serves as a reminder of just how far the economy needs to go to get back to a healthy level. A short preview video and the complete April 2013 U.S. Economic and Housing Market Outlook are available here.
Housing starts were up 47 percent from March 2012 to March 2013, passing 1 million starts for the first time in nearly five years.
The pace of construction job growth has been accelerating in recent months. Over the past year, net construction job growth represented 8 percent of all job gains, while in the last six months it represented 15 percent.
Projecting an increase by $100 billion in refinances in 2014 to account for additional Home Affordable Refinance Program volumes with its extension through 2015.
Projecting residential originations, including single-family and apartments, to be nearly $2 trillion in 2013.
Supported by low mortgage rates, expect total homes built in 2013 to come in at the fastest pace since 2007.
“Until aggregate unemployment decreases substantially we will not experience robust growth. Construction employment is showing signs of life, which should help to improve the overall macroeconomic picture,” says Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac vice president and chief economist.
“Housing construction is starting to pick up, but is well below historical averages. Supported by low mortgage rates we expect more homes to be built in 2013 than in any year since 2007. This increased construction employment should continue to help bring down the overall unemployment rate.”
Freddie Mac compiles data on major economic, housing and mortgage market indicators and offers forecasts based on those indicators.
For more information, visit www.FreddieMac.com.
From Gloom to Bloom: Expecting the Healthiest Spring Season Since 2007
Freddie Mac recently released its U.S. Economic and Housing Market Outlook through March showing that as we head into the spring home buying season, continued low mortgage rates, increasing house prices, and gradually improving consumer confidence will help support increased home sales. A short preview video and the complete March 2013 U.S. Economic and Housing Market Outlook are available here.
• Compared to 2012, expect home sales to be up 8 to 10 percent for 2013.
• Expect housing starts to increase to 950,000 units for 2013, compared to 780,000 in 2012.
• In 2012, real estate added $1.5 trillion to balance sheets, and residential mortgage debt outstanding increased by 0.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2012, indicating household deleveraging might be drawing to a close.
• Because of sequestration spending reductions, expect the unemployment rate in 2013 to average about 7.8 percent, essentially flat for the year or about 0.25 percentage points higher than it otherwise would have been.
• Regardless, the housing wealth effect is taking hold in the broader market which should translate into the healthiest spring home buying season since 2007.
“History shows us not all economic recoveries are created equal and consumer confidence mirrors this fact,” says Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac vice president and chief economist.
“With the spring home buying season upon us, the recent highs in the stock market are a welcome signal of better times ahead. But it will be the gradually declining unemployment rate and steadily improving housing market that will deliver broad-based economic benefits for Americans and, in turn, support the overall recovery.”
For more information, visit www.FreddieMac.com.
FNC Report: Housing Recovery Takes Hold for the Long Haul
Though home foreclosures continue to be a challenge in many hard-hit markets, a report released this week by mortgage technology company FNC indicates the ongoing housing recovery should continue for the long haul.
According to FNC’s Foreclosure Market Report, foreclosure prices have bottomed out in recent months and the foreclosure market has stabilized while underlying home values are rising. Foreclosure prices are at a 10-year low (when the sizes of foreclosed homes are factored in).
This trend of a rising underlying market accompanied by stabilizing foreclosure prices is the first encouraging development in the housing recession, according to FNC Senior Research Economist, Dr. Yanling Mayer.
“The fact that we are seeing a combination of rising home prices and a bottoming out of foreclosure prices is a very good sign the housing recovery is taking hold,” Mayer says. “This is the very first time in the long housing recession that the two are happening at the same time.”
FNC’s report shows that foreclosure price discounts, which compare a foreclosed home’s estimated market value to its final sales price, have dropped to pre-mortgage crisis levels at about 12.2 percent in Q4 2012. At the height of the mortgage crisis in 2008 and 2009, foreclosed homes were typically sold at more than 25 percent below their estimated market value. Additionally, the report indicates that the typical size of foreclosed homes is also approaching pre-crisis levels.
“If you look at the period of short-lived recovery under the first-time homebuyer tax credits, the foreclosure market was still in the midst of rapid deterioration with the influx of delinquent mortgages,” Mayer says. “This time, we are witnessing an entirely different development in the foreclosure market.”
FNC publishes the mortgage industry’s first market-valued based foreclosure price discount to gauge the degree of market distress. For more information about the foreclosure price discount, please refer to FNC’s March 2011 report located here.
More highlights from FNC’s Foreclosure Market Report:
• Single-family REO and foreclosure sales are 18.1 percent in Q4 2012, down from 26.5 percent in Q1 2012 and 24.2 percent in Q4 2011.
• The median foreclosure price is $93,000 or $65 per square foot. In comparison, the median price on non-foreclosure sales is $183,500 or $106 per square.
• Foreclosure price discounts are typically larger for low-tier properties, averaging 18.4 percent in Q4 2012. High-end properties, on the other hand, are typically sold close to their market value.
• Collateral depreciation – the difference between a property’s prior purchase price and foreclosure sale price – continues to decelerate, down to 6.4 percent in Q4 2012 from 8.4 percent a year earlier. Among the re-sales of non-distressed homes, homeowners typically broke even and many even realized a small price appreciation (+0.4 percent).
• Michigan has the nation’s highest concentration of foreclosure sales; 56 percent of homes sold in Q4 2012 are foreclosure sales. In contrast, foreclosure sales in judicial states such as New York, New Jersey, and Vermont only make up 5 percent of home sales.
• Foreclosure rates in a number of the hardest hit states are at or below the national average: Arizona (14.3 percent), California (19.8 percent), Florida (20.5 percent), and Nevada (13.0%).
• Midwest cities including Detroit, Chicago, Cleveland, and St. Louis have the largest concentration of foreclosure sales.
• Las Vegas, Phoenix, Riverside, and Sacramento show rapid declines in foreclosure sales in the last 12 months.
• Foreclosure price discounts are much smaller in markets with fast-rising prices. Many buyers in Phoenix, Las Vegas, Sacramento, San Diego, and Riverside paid a price premium on foreclosure sales, meaning foreclosure sales price exceeded estimated market value.
• Judicial foreclosures are generally associated with the largest price discount in foreclosure sales: New York (30 percent), Boston (32 percent), and Philadelphia (32.8 percent).
• Of the cities identified by the Federal Reserve Board as the largest REO inventory markets entering 2012, Phoenix, Los Angeles, and Riverside saw a significant decline in market distress during the year.
Phoenix is leading the nation in recovery with home prices up 26 percent in 2012 and foreclosure down from 29 percent to 12 percent.
For more information, visit www.fncinc.com.
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Contact The Serena Group anytime for assistance with buying or selling a Bradenton, Sarasota, Manatee county, or Sarasota County home!
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It’s clear after looking at 2012’s first month of real estate data, for the Sarasota area of Florida, that we’re seeing a substantial increase in home buyer activity.
Pending (homes under contract) for MLS home transactions, increased by 38% over December of 2011. And, if you’re anxious to hear more great news, the median home sales price increased by 20% in January 2012 over December of 2011.
“Homes on the market”- inventory- has seen a significant decline of 22% in January 2012 over December 2011. That is very encouraging news for sellers who may be thinking of selling their home in 2012. If these inventory home numbers continue to decline the logical result:
► Less competition/supply + more demand = increasing home values
Although distressed property sales are still a prominent factor in our market, short sale and foreclosure sales numbers declined slightly in January of 2012 over December of 2011.
If you’ve heard about the National Mortgage Settlement Program and were wondering if you might be able to benefit from this program, please contact The Serena Group for more information.
Robert Serena, team leader for The Serena Group, holds the SFR (Short Sale & Foreclosure Resource) REALTOR designation. Our team is very experienced with distressed property sales from both the home buying and the home selling point of view. We have assisted numerous home owners with short sale transactions and have also assisted a multitude of home buyers and investors with the purchase of both short sale and foreclosure properties. We know the trouble spots with these types of real estate transactions and how to avoid or get around them, as well as how to protect and negotiate the best possible outcome for sellers and deals for our home buying clients.
Please use the form at the end of this article to contact our team for a free “Distressed Property – Home Seller or Home Buyer Consultation.”
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The statistics / data charts below were created by the “Sarasota Association of Realtors.” (Click on the charts to enlarge the view!)
As a real estate professionals, we strive to keep in touch with our clients providing them with information that we hope they will find useful.
This newsletter is an opportunity to let you know about the state of the market & current trends. It may even touch on ways that you could enhance your home’s value.
We hope the market data & articles will help you with understanding real estate today & help you with your real estate decisions. If you have any questions, please do not hesitate to contact us!
Robert Serena ~ Team Leader ~ 941.928.1248
The Map above shows the areas that are represented in the real estate data and statistics below
Our own, Steve Georgie, in the Bradenton Herald news today.
His photographer ‘extraordinaire?’ Why, that would be Bob Serena… of course!
But seriously speaking, our team of 7 full time real estate agents, sharing 80+ years of real estate expertise, are ready to assist you with your plans to buy or sell your home.
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HAPPY HOLIDAYS TO ALL!